How The Next Recession Will Affect You

It is my prediction and it is not happening in 2020

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Photo by Jp Valery on Unsplash

If 95% of the opinions of the president (of your country) have to line up with you for you to consider the president competent, your problem is not the president

Now to the talk of recession. First, let us consider the last two recessions. They were both based on an industry that was overmarketed and overleveraged. The question now is that which industry is currently that way?

Therefore, the most likely trigger of a recession right now is to have a spill-over from the last recession that the economic powers are still trying to cover up.

Personally, I think the situation can be managed for as long as possible since we have the central bank system. All countries have that and they can make their problems literally disappear gradually. So for this recession-ghost to come back to haunt the world, there is a need for a trigger from somewhere else.

The Real Trigger

My only guess of the industry that will take down the financial system is EDUCATION. It is already obvious that education is a bubble. And not just in the USA, but all around the world.

People are not hiring based on qualifications anymore, people are hiring based on skills. And skills can be learned online for way less than schools charge

Also, there are lots of courses that do not really bring any value to the marketplace. And currently, schools all over the world are getting away with it. To add to that:

There is a growing number of people who would rather learn from an unprofessional teacher (who is a real-life doer) on the internet than someone with a bunch of degrees who haven’t really done it.

All of this is leading to a climax and an end.

I predict the self-education space is going to grow at an alarming rate in the next few years

The more it grows and the more successful people we have in that area, the demand for school education as we know it today will be drying up. There will be new kinds of schools created from the self-education movement. And the moment that becomes cool, problems start to arise with the old ones.

What Will Trigger the Recession?

Student loans. Student loans are already a problem. In the first place, I see no reason where a person is given a loan to go to school. If you want to pay for the tuition, do that. But to give a loan is just pure heartlessness. There is too much uncertainty in the world to make that wild bet.

The way the student loan scheme is going to fall out is when the job market suffers a significant blow

I don’t see that happening under the current US President. If he wins a second term, he will do everything in his capacity (and even trigger ones not under his capacity) to protect that job market. That is the only thing holding the US economy (and by extension the world economy) in one piece right now.

Some will get insanely rich during this period of course. Especially those in the self-education space that are well-positioned

If the current US administration wins another term in 2020, I’m predicting that there will be downward spikes but no recession. But when they leave office and another administration that doesn’t have their job market tenacity comes in, the recession will show itself.

Can something be done to avoid it? No.

The problem is already too big for the motivation to solve it. The best thing a political government can do is to suppress it. A true solution from the people will take a few generations. And I doubt if the government can suppress it for that long even if the current US Administration remains indefinitely.

The World Impact

The moment it crumbles in the US, the ripples will go around the world. Just as it happened in 2009. Also, all the other problems that have been covered up will blow up along with it. It could lead to a depression. All those companies valued at millions that do not make profits and investors are patient with will suddenly feel the strain.

The central banks will probably try to come to the rescue. And that could be bitcoin’s moon moment

If I will give you any advice, it is to make sure that you have skills that are recession-proof (that will always be in demand). And if you have an investment portfolio, start preparing it for this recession. Make sure you have commodities and crypto assets to diversify your stocks, bonds, and real estate.

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Inspiring and educating people about money, entrepreneurship, investing, and mindset. | For writers → amazon.com/dp/B08P2F2BPH | Others → davidolarinoye.com

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